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Who will win the Maryland 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?

MD-04 General Election 2026 · Nov 3, 2026 · Trading open

Glenn Ivey90%
George McDermott6%
$620 vol.

About this market

Traders price Glenn Ivey at 90% to win, ahead of George McDermott at 6%.

The market has $620 in volume across 15 trades; the most recent was on May 9, 2026.

Trading closes on Dec 3, 2026. The result is confirmed by Maryland State Board of Elections.

This race determines the outcome of the general election for the US House of Representatives in Maryland 4th District, shaping representation in the US House of Representatives.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Glenn IveyResolves Yes if Glenn Ivey wins the Maryland 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026.
  • George McDermottResolves Yes if George McDermott wins the Maryland 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026.

Result confirmed by Maryland State Board of Elections.

Trading opened
Jan 23, 2026
Trading closes
Dec 3, 2026
Expected result
Dec 3, 2026
Expected payout
Dec 3, 2026

More Maryland elections

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.