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Who will win the Pennsylvania 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?

PA-04 General Election 2026 · Nov 3, 2026 · Trading open

$445 vol.

About this market

Traders price Madeleine Dean at 91% to win.

The market has $445 in volume across 5 trades; the most recent was on Aug 4, 2026.

Trading closes on Nov 10, 2026. The result is confirmed by Pennsylvania Department of State Elections.

This race determines the outcome of the general election for the US House of Representatives in Pennsylvania 4th District, shaping representation in the US House of Representatives.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Madeleine DeanResolves Yes if Madeleine Dean wins the Pennsylvania 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026.
  • Aurora StuskiResolves Yes if Aurora Stuski wins the Pennsylvania 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026.

Result confirmed by Pennsylvania Department of State Elections.

Trading opened
Jan 23, 2026
Trading closes
Nov 10, 2026
Expected result
Nov 10, 2026
Expected payout
Nov 10, 2026

More Pennsylvania elections

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.