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Who will win the Washington 5th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?

WA-05 General Election 2026 · Nov 3, 2026 · Trading open

$415 vol.

About this market

Traders price Michael Baumgartner at 81% to win.

The market has $415 in volume across 5 trades; the most recent was on May 31, 2026.

Trading closes on Dec 3, 2026. The result is confirmed by Washington Secretary of State Elections Division.

This race determines the outcome of the general election for the US House of Representatives in Washington 5th District, shaping representation in the US House of Representatives.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Michael BaumgartnerResolves Yes if Michael Baumgartner wins the Washington 5th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026.
  • Carmela ConroyResolves Yes if Carmela Conroy wins the Washington 5th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026.

Result confirmed by Washington Secretary of State Elections Division.

Trading opened
Jan 23, 2026
Trading closes
Dec 3, 2026
Expected result
Dec 3, 2026
Expected payout
Dec 3, 2026

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.