Senate Majority Impact on S&P 500 Futures November 2026
Senate Majority Impact on S&P 500 Futures November 2026 · November 2026 · Trading open
About this market
Traders price Democratic at 75%, ahead of Republicans at 75%.
The market has $82 in volume across 4 trades; the most recent was on Oct 17, 2026.
Trading closes on Dec 31, 2026. The result is confirmed by United States Congress and ForecastEx.
This contract asks whether the settlement price of a specified S&P 500 Index Futures contract will exceed a specified price on a given date, conditional on a specified political party winning majority control of the United States Senate in the specified general election. It is designed to capture market expectations about S&P 500 Index Futures prices given a specified US Senate majority outcome.
Rules and timeline
Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.
- DemocraticResolves Yes if the answer to “If the Democratic Party wins a United States Senate majority in the 2026 general election, will the Mar-27 S&P 500 Index Futures settle above $7,600 on December 31, 2026?” is yes.
- RepublicanResolves Yes if the answer to “If the Republican Party wins a United States Senate majority in the 2026 general election, will the Mar-27 S&P 500 Index Futures settle above $7,600 on December 31, 2026?” is yes.
Result confirmed by United States Congress and ForecastEx.
- Trading opened
- Sep 23, 2026
- Trading closes
- Dec 31, 2026
- Expected result
- Jan 4, 2027
- Expected payout
- Jan 4, 2027
Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.