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Who will win the California 1st District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?

CA-01 General Election 2026 · Nov 3, 2026 · Trading open

Mike McGuire94%
James Gallagher5%
$1K vol.

About this market

Traders price Mike McGuire at 94% to win, ahead of James Gallagher at 5%.

The market has $1K in volume across 167 trades; the most recent was on Sep 18, 2026.

Trading closes on Dec 11, 2026. The result is confirmed by California Secretary of State Elections Division.

This race determines the outcome of the general election for the US House of Representatives in California 1st District, shaping representation in the US House of Representatives.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Mike McGuireResolves Yes if Mike McGuire wins the California 1st District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026.
  • James GallagherResolves Yes if James Gallagher wins the California 1st District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026.

Result confirmed by California Secretary of State Elections Division.

Trading opened
May 8, 2026
Trading closes
Dec 11, 2026
Expected result
Dec 11, 2026
Expected payout
Dec 11, 2026

More California elections

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.