House
Who will win the California 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?
CA-04 General Election 2026 · Nov 3, 2026 · Trading open
Mike Thompson81%
Eric Jones20%$647 vol.
About this market
Traders price Mike Thompson at 81% to win, ahead of Eric Jones at 20%.
The market has $647 in volume across 34 trades; the most recent was on Oct 14, 2026.
Trading closes on Dec 11, 2026. The result is confirmed by California Secretary of State Elections Division.
This race determines the outcome of the general election for the US House of Representatives in California 4th District, shaping representation in the US House of Representatives.
Rules and timeline
Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.
- Mike ThompsonResolves Yes if Mike Thompson wins the California 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026.
- Eric JonesResolves Yes if Eric Jones wins the California 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026.
Result confirmed by California Secretary of State Elections Division.
- Trading opened
- Jan 23, 2026
- Trading closes
- Dec 11, 2026
- Expected result
- Dec 11, 2026
- Expected payout
- Dec 11, 2026
More California elections
24.2K open interest
Related markets
Elections · United States House
AK-AL General Election
Closes Dec 3, 2026AL-01 General Election
Closes Nov 25, 2026AL-02 General Election
Closes Nov 25, 2026AL-03 General Election
Closes Nov 25, 2026AL-04 General Election
Closes Nov 25, 2026AL-05 General Election
Closes Nov 25, 2026AL-06 General Election
Closes Nov 25, 2026AL-07 General Election
Closes Nov 25, 2026
Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.