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Who will win the California 23rd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?

CA-23 General Election 2026 · Nov 3, 2026 · Trading open

$433 vol.

About this market

Traders price Jay Obernolte at 93% to win.

The market has $433 in volume across 5 trades; the most recent was on Oct 18, 2026.

Trading closes on Dec 11, 2026. The result is confirmed by California Secretary of State Elections Division.

This race determines the outcome of the general election for the US House of Representatives in California 23rd District, shaping representation in the US House of Representatives.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Jay ObernolteResolves Yes if Jay Obernolte wins the California 23rd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026.
  • Tessa Lynn HodgeResolves Yes if Tessa Lynn Hodge wins the California 23rd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026.

Result confirmed by California Secretary of State Elections Division.

Trading opened
Jan 23, 2026
Trading closes
Dec 11, 2026
Expected result
Dec 11, 2026
Expected payout
Dec 11, 2026

More California elections

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.