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Housing

What will the change in US home prices be?

Percentage Change in US Home Prices October 2026 · October 2026 · Trading open

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Show all 9 outcomes

About this market

No trades have been recorded on this market yet, so there is no market price for any outcome.

Trading closes on Nov 25, 2026. The result is confirmed by US Census Bureau.

The month-over-month percentage change in the median sales prices of new houses sold in the United States during the month specified in the contract as reported by the US Census Bureau in the New Residential Sales Report.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Above -1.5%Resolves Yes if the change in US home prices exceeds -1.5% in October 2026.
  • Above -10.5%Resolves Yes if the change in US home prices exceeds -10.5% in October 2026.
  • Above -3%Resolves Yes if the change in US home prices exceeds -3% in October 2026.
  • Above -4.5%Resolves Yes if the change in US home prices exceeds -4.5% in October 2026.
  • Above -6%Resolves Yes if the change in US home prices exceeds -6% in October 2026.
  • Above -7.5%Resolves Yes if the change in US home prices exceeds -7.5% in October 2026.
Show rules for all 9 outcomes
  • Above -9%Resolves Yes if the change in US home prices exceeds -9% in October 2026.
  • Above 0%Resolves Yes if the change in US home prices exceeds 0% in October 2026.
  • Above 1.5%Resolves Yes if the change in US home prices exceeds 1.5% in October 2026.

Result confirmed by US Census Bureau.

Trading opened
Aug 10, 2026
Trading closes
Nov 25, 2026
Expected result
Nov 25, 2026
Expected payout
Nov 25, 2026

More Percentage Change in US Home Prices markets

Other dates in this series

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.