Government Actions
US Tariffs Enacted via Executive Order December 31 2026
US Tariffs Enacted via Executive Order 2026 · Dec 31, 2026 · Trading open
$183 vol.
OutcomeChancePrice
- EU$111 vol.41%
- South Korea$42 vol.38%
- China$13 vol.33%
- Semiconductors$6 vol.30%
- Solar Panels$3 vol.26%
- Mexico$3 vol.25%
- Canada$4 vol.22%
- Japan$2 vol.22%
About this market
Traders price EU at 41%, ahead of South Korea at 38%.
The market has $183 in volume across 48 trades; the most recent was on May 21, 2026.
Trading closes on Dec 31, 2026. The result is confirmed by The White House.
The formal issuance of a presidential executive order that goes into effect to impose or increase tariffs on a specified country, region, or industry within a defined timeframe.
Rules and timeline
Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.
- EUResolves Yes if the answer to “Will the United States impose additional tariffs on EU by December 31, 2026?” is yes.
- South KoreaResolves Yes if the answer to “Will the United States impose additional tariffs on South Korea by December 31, 2026?” is yes.
- ChinaResolves Yes if the answer to “Will the United States impose additional tariffs on China by December 31, 2026?” is yes.
- SemiconductorsResolves Yes if the answer to “Will the United States impose additional tariffs on Semiconductors by December 31, 2026?” is yes.
- Solar PanelsResolves Yes if the answer to “Will the United States impose additional tariffs on Solar Panels by December 31, 2026?” is yes.
- MexicoResolves Yes if the answer to “Will the United States impose additional tariffs on Mexico by December 31, 2026?” is yes.
Show rules for all 13 outcomesShow fewer
- CanadaResolves Yes if the answer to “Will the United States impose additional tariffs on Canada by December 31, 2026?” is yes.
- JapanResolves Yes if the answer to “Will the United States impose additional tariffs on Japan by December 31, 2026?” is yes.
- AluminumResolves Yes if the answer to “Will the United States impose additional tariffs on Aluminum by December 31, 2026?” is yes.
- Electric VehiclesResolves Yes if the answer to “Will the United States impose additional tariffs on Electric Vehicles by December 31, 2026?” is yes.
- IndiaResolves Yes if the answer to “Will the United States impose additional tariffs on India by December 31, 2026?” is yes.
- SteelResolves Yes if the answer to “Will the United States impose additional tariffs on Steel by December 31, 2026?” is yes.
- VietnamResolves Yes if the answer to “Will the United States impose additional tariffs on Vietnam by December 31, 2026?” is yes.
Result confirmed by The White House.
- Trading opened
- Jan 12, 2026
- Trading closes
- Dec 31, 2026
- Expected result
- Dec 31, 2026
- Expected payout
- Dec 31, 2026
Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.