Government Actions
Will the European Commission's AI Office issue a formal notice of non-compliance to a provider of a "High-Risk AI System" on or before December 31, 2026?
EU AI Act Enforcement 2026 · Dec 31, 2026 · Trading open
$3.2K vol.
About this market
Traders price By December 31, 2026 at 28%.
The market has $3.2K in volume across 65 trades; the most recent was on Oct 14, 2026.
Trading closes on Jan 1, 2027. The result is confirmed by European Commission AI Office.
The underlying is the public issuance of a formal non-compliance notice or enforcement action under the EU AI Act by the EU AI Office, as published through official European Commission communication channels.
Rules and timeline
A Yes contract pays $1 if the event happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse.
- By December 31, 2026Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will the European Commission's AI Office issue a formal notice of non-compliance to a provider of a "High-Risk AI System" on or before December 31, 2026?” is yes.
Result confirmed by European Commission AI Office.
- Trading opened
- Jan 7, 2026
- Trading closes
- Jan 1, 2027
- Expected result
- Jan 1, 2027
- Expected payout
- Jan 1, 2027
Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.