Alcoa

AA · NYSE

$40.79−$0.88 (−2.11%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:58 PM ET

Prev close $41.67

AA analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 11 analysts over the last 12 months. 64% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy7
Hold3
Underperform1
Sell0

12-month price target · 16 analysts

Average $65.29 (+60.1% upside)

Low: $50.20
Now: $40.79
High: $84.00

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

AA analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Citigroup	Oct 20, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$76.00 → $56.00	61%
B. Riley Securities	Oct 20, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$80.00 → $63.00	33%
Freedom Broker	Oct 20, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$76.00 → $62.00	62%
Barclays	Oct 14, 2026	Initiates	Overweight	$55.00	57%
JP Morgan	Oct 7, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$52.00 → $50.00	54%
Morgan Stanley	Oct 7, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$53.00 → $50.00	53%
Freedom Broker	Sep 22, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$64.00 → $76.00	62%
Wells Fargo	Sep 18, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$71.00 → $60.00	55%
Argus Research	Jul 22, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$73.00 → $55.00	67%
BMO Capital	Jul 17, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$60.00 → $55.00	69%

The case for and against

Updated Nov 28, 2024

Bull case

Alcoa's vertically integrated operations, encompassing bauxite mining, alumina refining, and aluminum manufacturing, position the company as a leader in the aluminum supply chain, which is essential for navigating fluctuating commodity prices. Recent strategic initiatives are expected to yield an annualized EBITDA improvement of approximately $645 million by the end of 2025, bolstered by lower raw material costs and enhanced operational efficiencies. Furthermore, Alcoa's commitment to increasing its ESG targets is creating positive trends in key performance metrics, indicating a strong alignment with sustainable practices that may enhance the company's overall market appeal.

Bear case

Alcoa's financial outlook is negatively impacted by declining EBITDA estimates, with projections falling to $136 million for Q4 2023 and $150 million for Q1 2024, indicating reduced profitability amid shifting market conditions. The company also experienced a notable working capital release in Q3 2023, primarily due to a $210 million decline in inventories, highlighting potential operational challenges ahead. Additionally, the uncertainty surrounding potential EPA involvement and production difficulties contributing to higher costs further complicate Alcoa's financial stability and future growth prospects.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.