Arbor Realty Trust

ABR · NYSE

$2.89+$0.22 (+8.24%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:32 PM ET

Prev close $2.67

ABR analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 4 analysts over the last 12 months. 0% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy0
Hold2
Underperform2
Sell0

12-month price target · 4 analysts

Average $5.10 (+76.5% upside)

Low: $5.05
Now: $2.89
High: $5.25

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

ABR analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Oct 9, 2026	Maintains	Underperform	$5.00 → $3.00	51%
Piper Sandler	Oct 9, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$5.00 → $3.50	37%
Citizens	Sep 29, 2026	Downgrade	Market Outperform → Market Perform	—	26%
Piper Sandler	Aug 3, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$5.50 → $5.00	37%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Aug 3, 2026	Maintains	Underperform	$5.50 → $5.00	51%
JP Morgan	Jul 17, 2026	Upgrade	Underweight → Neutral	$7.00 → $5.50	56%
Piper Sandler	Jul 2, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$8.00 → $5.50	37%
Citizens	May 14, 2026	Maintains	Market Outperform	$9.50 → $8.50	26%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	May 12, 2026	Maintains	Underperform	$7.50 → $6.50	51%
Citizens	Apr 2, 2026	Maintains	Market Outperform	$12.00 → $11.00	26%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 15, 2026

Bull case

Arbor Realty Trust is supported by a resilient Agency platform that rebounded in 2Q, with originations rising to $1.1B from $707.6M in 1Q26 and a servicing portfolio of $36.7B producing about $128.0M of prepayment-protected annual revenue. Its balance sheet also improved materially as it generated roughly $500.0M of additional liquidity through CLO redemption, refinancing, and new senior convertible notes, while repurchasing $114.3M of stock at 49% of book value and addressing near-term maturities. The shares appear undervalued relative to peers at 0.55x P/BV, and the 26.7% short interest creates a further upside catalyst if investor sentiment normalizes.

Bear case

Arbor Realty Trust is under pressure because its earnings remain impaired by legacy credit resolution costs, with 2Q26 distributable EPS of $0.10 and GAAP loss of $0.20 per share, while $9.6M of realized losses reduced dividend coverage to 88% on the $0.17 payout. Its core portfolio is still large at $12.1B, but yields fell to 7.21% from 7.50% in 1Q26 as delinquencies rose and rate modifications increased, signaling weaker asset performance in its higher-margin Structured Business. The outlook is further hurt by a lower tangible book value of $10.42, extended NPL/REO resolution risk as interest rates stay volatile, and financing dependence on warehouse, term loan, and securitization markets that can tighten or become more expensive.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.