Alexandria Real Estate Equities

Bull case

• Alexandria Real Estate is viewed favorably because its core life science-focused portfolio is supported by strong demand in high-barrier markets, a record backlog, and a development pipeline that can drive external growth and higher-quality assets over time.
• Management’s strategy to sell non-core properties and reinvest into mega campuses, combined with improving leasing trends, better-than-expected Q1/26 revenue growth of 18% year over year, and forecast 2026 revenue growth of about 10%, suggests earnings and margin expansion potential despite near-term tenant move-outs and higher G&A.
• Its sustainability leadership, with about 50% of revenues from LEED-certified or targeted buildings and disciplined return hurdles, also strengthens the long-term franchise and supports a re-rating versus peers as legacy project risk rolls off.

Bear case

Alexandria Real Estate is facing a weakening near-term earnings profile as Core FFO is now estimated at $6.40 in 2026, $5.26 in 2027, and $5.53 in 2028, reflecting a soft operating backdrop, known move-outs, and lower capitalized interest. Same-property 2Q26 NOI fell 10.6% year over year, operating occupancy was only 86.9%, and upcoming lease maturities of 1.4 million RSF in 2027 plus 12 to 24 months of downtime point to continued revenue pressure. Its heavy concentration in life science assets and key markets, combined with interest-rate sensitivity, active disposition risk, and reliance on capital markets for development, makes the outlook structurally fragile.