Bull case
Cemex is well positioned because its earnings quality, cash generation, and balance-sheet discipline are improving structurally rather than cyclically, with leverage down to 2.08x, net interest expense falling from about 30% of EBITDA in 2019 to roughly 16% in 2025, and FCF conversion improving to around 33% from 28% in 2019. Management’s Project Cutting Edge and broader capital allocation reset are driving durable cost savings, including an increased savings target of $475m, while full-year EBITDA guidance has been raised to 16-17% year-on-year growth and 2026 energy costs are now expected to rise only low single digits. The company also benefits from stronger operating momentum in Mexico, where margins expanded by 480bps YoY in Q2'26 and volume growth is being supported by social housing and self-construction, while lower expected interest expense of about $455m and disciplined capex/intangibles spending should support further upside in free cash flow.