Essent Group

ESNT · NYSE

$65.84+$0.78 (+1.20%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $65.06

ESNT analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 6 analysts over the last 12 months. 33% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy2
Hold4
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 10 analysts

Average $71.54 (+8.7% upside)

Low: $40.33
Now: $65.84
High: $84.00

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

ESNT analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
JP Morgan	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$72.00 → $66.00	56%
Barclays	Oct 5, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$65.00 → $66.00	30%
Roth Capital	Aug 10, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$65.00 → $80.00	70%
RBC Capital	Aug 10, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$68.00 → $75.00	44%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Aug 10, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$74.00 → $78.00	53%
Barclays	Aug 10, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$62.00 → $65.00	30%
JP Morgan	Jul 13, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$65.00 → $72.00	56%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Jun 25, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$73.00 → $74.00	53%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Jun 4, 2026	Upgrade	Market Perform → Outperform	$73.00	53%
RBC Capital	May 22, 2026	Initiates	Sector Perform	$68.00	44%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 15, 2026

Bull case

Essent Group is benefiting from strong core mortgage insurance profitability, with 2Q/2026 EPS of $2.08 beating expectations, a combined ratio of 28.4%, and an annualized ROE of 13.4% even as growth remains constrained by affordability challenges. Its outlook is supported by very benign credit conditions, low defaults at 2.53%, strong reserve releases, and substantial excess capital, including $302M of ordinary dividend capacity, $1.6B of holdco liquidity, and $191M of share repurchases in 2Q26 near BVPS. Additional upside comes from the expanding reinsurance business, which accounted for roughly 83% of net written premiums in 2Q26, while BVPS rose to $63.01 and insurance in force increased to $249.7B sequentially.

Bear case

Essent Group is viewed negatively because its core mortgage insurance business faces meaningful credit and regulatory risk, with profitability tied to a housing market that could weaken through higher delinquencies, lower cure rates, and softer home demand. Reinsurance remains a weak contributor, with only $17.1 million of earnings in the quarter and a combined ratio near 78%, while the new reinsurance business may have run above 100%, suggesting limited near-term earnings support. The company also faces added volatility from its property casualty reinsurance entry, potential PMIERs capital pressure, and key-person dependence, which together can constrain long-term ROE and capital deployment.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.