Ferguson Enterprises

FERG · NYSE

$227.08+$0.72 (+0.32%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $226.36

FERG analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 13 analysts over the last 12 months. 69% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy9
Hold4
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 25 analysts

Average $290.68 (+28.0% upside)

Low: $206.61
Now: $227.08
High: $341.25

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

FERG analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
RBC Capital	Oct 7, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$290.00 → $286.00	59%
Wolfe Research	Sep 15, 2026	Initiates	Peer Perform	—	59%
UBS	Aug 11, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$252.00 → $256.00	46%
Bernstein	Aug 11, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$310.00 → $325.00	29%
RBC Capital	Aug 11, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$281.00 → $290.00	59%
Barclays	Aug 11, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$297.00 → $313.00	52%
Oppenheimer	Aug 11, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$280.00 → $288.00	46%
Wells Fargo	Aug 11, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$285.00 → $295.00	47%
Baird	Aug 11, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$285.00 → $288.00	64%
Zelman & Assoc	Jul 17, 2026	Upgrade	Neutral → Outperform	$285.00	—

The case for and against

Updated Oct 16, 2026

Bull case

Ferguson Enterprises is viewed favorably because its scale, broad product breadth, and entrenched North American distribution footprint support durable share gains and above-market growth, even as residential demand remains mixed. The company’s 2Q’26 results reinforced that thesis, with Adj. EBITDA of $994 million, non-residential revenue growth of about 8% year over year, residential revenue turning positive at about 2%, and an implied FY’26 operating profit guide raised 2% at the midpoint. Its strong free cash flow, disciplined capital returns, and exposure to large capital projects with multi-year visibility create a resilient earnings profile that supports long-term compounding.

Bear case

Ferguson Enterprises is exposed to a cyclical North American plumbing and HVAC market, so a deep and prolonged housing downturn or a US recession could sharply weaken demand across repair, maintenance, new construction, and civil infrastructure channels. Under a downside CY’26E case, EBITDA of $3.09 billion to $3.13 billion and a 12.0x EV/EBITDA multiple imply that slowing demand could intensify competition, erode pricing power, and compress margins. The outlook is further pressured by the risk of input cost inflation that cannot be passed through, execution risk in organic and M&A growth, and seasonality or inclement weather.

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