First Financial Bankshares

FFIN · NASDAQ

$30.19+$0.25 (+0.84%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $29.94

FFIN analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 6 analysts over the last 12 months. 17% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy1
Hold5
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 8 analysts

Average $37.06 (+22.8% upside)

Low: $35.35
Now: $30.19
High: $40.95

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

FFIN analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Piper Sandler	Oct 19, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$35.00 → $33.00	67%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Oct 16, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$35.00 → $34.00	72%
StoneX	Oct 16, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$39.00 → $38.00	39%
Raymond James	Oct 15, 2026	Initiates	Market Perform	—	61%
Cantor Fitzgerald	Oct 14, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$35.00 → $34.00	54%
Hovde Group	Sep 11, 2026	Initiates	Market Perform	$36.00	0%
Piper Sandler	Aug 27, 2026	Initiates	Underweight → Neutral	$35.00	67%
Cantor Fitzgerald	Jul 15, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$34.00 → $35.00	54%
Benchmark	Jun 25, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$39.00	39%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Apr 9, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$36.00 → $34.00	72%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 21, 2026

Bull case

First Finl Bankshares is supported by robust 3Q26 loan growth of 9.1% LQA, a very low 64.5% loan-to-deposit ratio, and roughly $600 million of annual securities cash flows that give it ample capacity to re-lever the balance sheet. Its margin and profitability remain exceptional, with a 3.91% NIM, 1.90% ROA, and 17.87% ROTCE, while credit quality stays sound as the ACL held at 1.33% despite only modestly higher classified assets. The outlook is further strengthened by broad-based growth across C&I, CRE, residential, and consumer lending, improving DDA trends, and a favorable securities-to-loans remix that should support earnings over time.

Bear case

First Finl Bankshares is constrained by limited balance sheet growth, with 2027E EPS only modestly revised to $2.09 and 2028E introduced at $2.12, suggesting earnings momentum is likely to remain subdued absent meaningful M&A. Its heavy securities exposure, at 35.5% of total assets, has created a large AOCI drag as unrealized losses widened to $490M in 3Q26 from $280M in 2Q26, driving a 34% annualized q/q decline in TBVPS. Although reinvestment may support NIM and profitability over time, the recovery is highly rate-sensitive and near-term valuation appears capped by the balance sheet mix, Texas concentration, and risks to asset quality and capital deployment.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.