FirstService

FSV · TORONTO

$143.67−$3.55 (−2.41%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 23, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $147.22

FSV analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 5 analysts over the last 12 months. 100% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy5
Hold0
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 7 analysts

Average $130.58 (−9.1% downside)

Low: $121.45
Now: $143.67
High: $145.77

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

FSV analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
CIBC	Oct 23, 2026	Maintains	Outperformer	$170.00 → $178.00	0%
Scotiabank	Oct 23, 2026	Maintains	Sector Outperform	$170.00 → $175.00	38%
BMO Capital	Jul 24, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$199.00 → $192.00	86%
Scotiabank	Jun 30, 2026	Maintains	Sector Outperform	$190.00 → $175.00	38%
TD Cowen	Jun 3, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$204.00	11%
TD Securities	Apr 14, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$217.00 → $201.00	11%
TD Cowen	Apr 14, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$217.00 → $201.00	11%
TD Securities	Nov 5, 2025	Maintains	Buy	$213.00 → $211.00	50%
TD Securities	Oct 24, 2025	Upgrade	Hold → Buy	$214.00 → $213.00	50%
Scotiabank	Oct 24, 2025	Upgrade	Sector Perform → Sector Outperform	$220.00 → $205.00	38%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 22, 2026

Bull case

FirstService is supported by a resilient outsourced property-services model with leadership in fragmented markets, where scale, brand strength, and acquisition integration have helped drive about 16% CAGR since 2015, including roughly 9% from M&A and 7% organic growth. Its outlook is further strengthened by a shift in capital allocation, with $123M of buybacks at $132/share in May’26, a higher NCIB limit to $450M, leverage at 1.5 turns, and a 5.3% FCF yield versus a 3.5% historical average, indicating management sees the shares as undervalued. Even after a tough 2025 and near-term organic-growth deceleration, the business is expected to recover in 2026 and normalize in 2027, with forecast 2026 organic growth of 3.5%/5.7% and 6%/8% EBITDA/EPS CAGR through 2027 before incremental M&A.

Bear case

FirstService is facing a negative fundamental setup because its storm-related revenue is exposed to a likely El Nino year in 2026, when below-average Atlantic storms could cut an important tailwind that has historically contributed about $115M of revenue and roughly $20M of annual EBITDA, or about 4% of total EBITDA. Its Roofing & Restoration operations also look pressured by weaker warehouse construction, softer CAT-loss trends, and mixed industry read-throughs, with commercial roofing growth deteriorating to -6% in Q1 2026 and residential roofing revenue falling 14% year over year in Q1 2026. Beyond near-term demand weakness, the stock also faces elevated macro and execution risks from real-estate conditions, competition, acquisition integration, labor and cost inflation, liability, FX, and interest-rate pressure.

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