Johnson Controls International

JCI · NYSE

$147.94−$0.28 (−0.19%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:48 PM ET

Prev close $148.22

JCI analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 15 analysts over the last 12 months. 53% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy8
Hold6
Underperform1
Sell0

12-month price target · 21 analysts

Average $169.35 (+14.5% upside)

Low: $132.90
Now: $147.94
High: $200.55

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

JCI analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Mizuho	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$150.00 → $165.00	66%
RBC Capital	Oct 14, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$161.00 → $165.00	43%
Citigroup	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$157.00 → $170.00	63%
B of A Securities	Oct 8, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$152.00 → $175.00	69%
Wells Fargo	Sep 25, 2026	Initiates	Overweight	$186.00	60%
Morgan Stanley	Sep 2, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$175.00 → $180.00	68%
Bernstein	Aug 14, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$173.00 → $190.00	25%
Citigroup	Jul 30, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$155.00 → $157.00	63%
RBC Capital	Jul 30, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$154.00 → $161.00	57%
Morgan Stanley	Jun 9, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$140.00 → $175.00	68%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 15, 2026

Bull case

Johnson Controls Intl is supported by a streamlined portfolio after the 2025 R&LC HVAC divestiture, leaving a 60% commercial HVAC and 40% fire/security mix that should sharpen execution and capital allocation. Management’s proprietary business system is already delivering tangible gains—organic sales rose 6%, EBITA margin expanded 180 bps to 18.5%, incremental margins were 53%, and F2026 guidance calls for ~6% organic growth and ~100% free cash flow conversion—while long-term targets now imply HSD% growth and +30% operating leverage. The bullish thesis is further reinforced by datacenter exposure, expected to rise from about 12% of revenue in 2025 to roughly 33% within five years, plus services growth, higher attachment rates, and AI-enabled efficiency gains across products, installation, and services.

Bear case

Johnson Controls Intl is viewed negatively because its earnings quality and cash flow remain weak, with historical sub-100% FCF conversion, lower margins and growth, and a persistent gap between adjusted earnings and GAAP driven by restructuring exclusions every quarter for nine consecutive years since merging with Tyco. Following the 2025 divestiture of residential and light commercial HVAC to Bosch, the business becomes more concentrated in commercial HVAC and fire and security, yet the 2016 merger’s promised synergy still appears unproven, and the pro forma mix of one-third products, one-third installation, and one-third services may not be enough to improve consistency. If these stumbles persist, valuation could compress to an 18.4x 2027 P/E, with 2027 EPS around ~$5.51, reflecting limited confidence in cost synergies and organic growth recovery.

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