Lightspeed Commerce

LSPD · TORONTO

$11.13−$0.08 (−0.71%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 23, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $11.21

LSPD analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 10 analysts over the last 12 months. 30% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy3
Hold5
Underperform2
Sell0

12-month price target · 14 analysts

Average $9.23 (−17.1% downside)

Low: $6.48
Now: $11.13
High: $13.59

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

LSPD analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Truist Securities	Oct 23, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$10.00 → $11.00	71%
Morgan Stanley	Sep 28, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$11.50 → $9.50	48%
RBC Capital	Aug 31, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$10.00 → $13.00	65%
JP Morgan	Jul 31, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$11.00 → $12.00	55%
Truist Securities	May 28, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$11.00 → $10.00	71%
UBS	May 22, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$11.00 → $10.00	45%
Morgan Stanley	May 22, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$13.50 → $11.50	48%
Benchmark	May 22, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$18.00 → $16.00	55%
RBC Capital	May 22, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$13.00 → $10.00	65%
BTIG	May 21, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$15.00 → $12.00	46%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 17, 2026

Bull case

Lightspeed Commerce is supported by accelerating location growth, with growth market locations up 11% y/y in FY26 and customer locations up 11% y/y in 4Q, reflecting strong product-market fit in North America Retail and European Hospitality. Management’s FY27 guidance for GP growth of 12%-16% organic and adj. EBITDA of $75mm-$95mm suggests improving operating leverage as outbound investments start to convert into revenue and margin expansion. The outlook is further reinforced by a path to mid-to-low teens medium-term growth, driven by software upsells, price increases, a growing direct sales force, and Lightspeed Payments penetration approaching ~60% over the next three years.

Bear case

Lightspeed Commerce is viewed negatively because its FY27 organic gross profit growth guidance of 12%-16% represents a deceleration from 16.6% in FY26 and falls below its FY25-FY28 CAGR target of 15%-18%, suggesting slowing underlying momentum despite management’s macro conservatism. Its outlook is further clouded by elevated hardware costs that are pressuring adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2027, while the 4QFY26 beat was aided by a roughly $4 million nonrecurring cloud rebate that weakens the quality of results. Even with the Upserve divestiture streamlining the business and guidance roughly aligning with consensus after adjusting for about $24 million of Upserve GP, the combination of slower growth, margin pressure, and execution risks supports a cautious fundamental stance.

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