McDonald's

MCD · NYSE

$246.52+$3.85 (+1.59%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:59 PM ET

Prev close $242.67

MCD analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 27 analysts over the last 12 months. 59% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy16
Hold10
Underperform0
Sell1

12-month price target · 33 analysts

Average $309.37 (+25.5% upside)

Low: $252.50
Now: $246.52
High: $409.50

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

MCD analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Citigroup	Oct 20, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$305.00 → $295.00	57%
Bernstein	Oct 8, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$295.00 → $250.00	33%
Keybanc	Oct 6, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$305.00 → $280.00	55%
Wells Fargo	Oct 5, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$300.00 → $270.00	57%
Guggenheim	Oct 5, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$290.00 → $250.00	60%
JP Morgan	Sep 29, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$260.00 → $250.00	64%
Melius Research	Sep 28, 2026	Maintains	Sell	$250.00 → $230.00	67%
Morgan Stanley	Sep 28, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$308.00 → $297.00	48%
BMO Capital	Sep 24, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$335.00 → $310.00	51%
JP Morgan	Sep 24, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$280.00 → $260.00	64%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

McDonald's is positioned favorably because its beverage platform is outperforming expectations, driving incremental afternoon traffic, higher food attach, and roughly 50% higher average checks, while its 220M active loyalty members visit about 2.5x more frequently than non-members. Management’s focus on menu innovation in chicken and beef, including a targeted +1.5pp share gain in beverages and chicken by 2030, supports an estimated ~1.3% annual traffic CAGR between 2026-2030, even as franchise economics remain highly attractive with about 62% of revenue from royalties and rent. Further upside comes from operational leverage through ArchIQ AI, restaurant layout productivity, and $3.0B-$3.5B of cumulative U.S. rent relief in 2027-30, which should strengthen margins and improve earnings quality.

Bear case

McDonald's is facing a negative setup because 3Q U.S. same-store sales were revised to -0.5% and 4Q U.S. comps to -1.0%, with softer top-line trends despite elevated promotional activity and beverage innovation. Years of commodity and labor inflation have forced sustained pricing that hurt traffic and strained franchisee alignment, while missteps such as the new chicken tenders launch, the 10 items <$3 menu push, and likely pushback on ~$1.2mn remodel goals threaten execution. Even with the NEXT playbook and $3B baseline capex, reduced sales leverage has already lowered the 3Q26 operating margin estimate to 48.1%, underscoring limited near-term profit improvement.

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