Mercer International

MERC · NASDAQ

$0.1394−$0.0008 (−0.57%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 23, 7:55 PM ET

Prev close $0.1402

MERC analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 4 analysts over the last 12 months. 0% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy0
Hold3
Underperform0
Sell1

12-month price target · 6 analysts

Average $0.5228 (+275.0% upside)

Low: $0.1515
Now: $0.1394
High: $0.7875

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

MERC analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
RBC Capital	Oct 16, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$0.75 → $0.20	31%
CIBC	Jul 21, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$1.50 → $1.00	53%
RBC Capital	Jul 17, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$1.00 → $0.75	31%
RBC Capital	May 11, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$1.25 → $1.00	31%
RBC Capital	Apr 16, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$2.00 → $1.25	31%
TD Securities	Feb 17, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$2.25 → $1.50	60%
TD Cowen	Jan 21, 2026	Downgrade	Hold → Sell	$2.00 → $2.25	—
RBC Capital	Nov 10, 2025	Maintains	Sector Perform	$3.00 → $2.00	31%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 7, 2026

Bull case

Mercer International is supported by a growing mass timber opportunity, with backlog rising to $171MM in Q126 from $163MM in Q425 and $80MM in Q325, while 60% of the project pipeline is tied to large-scale data center infrastructure. Its integrated asset base, including one of the world’s largest sawmills with 550 mmfbm of annual capacity and existing synergies from prior acquisitions, should help it capture demand and improve operating leverage as cost savings and reliability gains progress toward the expected $100MM by the end of 2026. Although pulp remains soft and oversupplied, Q126 Adjusted EBITDA of $7.8MM beat consensus, a lender waiver provides liquidity flexibility through the first three quarters of 2026, and management expects compliance with the leverage ratio by Q426.

Bear case

Mercer International is facing a negative outlook because elevated fiber costs are squeezing both pulp and solid wood margins, with Q1 2026 per-unit fiber costs up 22% y/y and 36% y/y, while fiber costs reached 85% of lumber cash production costs. The company also remains exposed to soft, oversupplied pulp markets and volatile pricing, which, combined with elevated leverage, led to a CCC+ downgrade in February and supports a valuation below the typical 6.0x to 8.0x range for North American forest products firms. Although bondholder consent improved financial flexibility, net debt of about $1.4B as of Q4 2025 and possible asset sales underscore balance-sheet strain rather than fundamental improvement.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.