Manulife Financial

MFC · TORONTO

$44.26−$1.36 (−2.98%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 23, 7:37 PM ET

Prev close $45.62

MFC analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 1 analyst over the last 12 months. 100% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy1
Hold0
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 16 analysts

Average $48.49 (+9.6% upside)

Low: $42.47
Now: $44.26
High: $55.37

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

MFC analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
RBC Capital	Aug 7, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$55.00 → $67.00	64%
RBC Capital	Nov 14, 2025	Maintains	Outperform	$49.00 → $52.00	64%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 18, 2026

Bull case

Manulife Financial is supported by broad-based earnings momentum, with Q2/26 core EPS of $1.09 beating expectations as stronger Asia, GWAM, and Canada results more than offset softer items, while core ROE improved to 16.3% and the LICAT ratio stayed solid at 136%. The firm’s Asia franchise remains the key growth engine, contributing about 38% of 2025 adjusted earnings across 12 countries, and management sees manageable near-term regulatory risk in Hong Kong even as earnings growth there and in broader Asia stays robust. Balance-sheet risk is also improving through the $3.2 billion LTC reinsurance deal expected to close in Q4/26, which would reduce cumulative LTC morbidity risk to about 24% and support a higher-quality earnings mix alongside roughly CAD 1.2 trillion of AUM and administration.

Bear case

Manulife Financial is facing a weaker fundamental setup because core insurance experience losses widened to $76 million and ALDA losses increased to $266 million, underscoring earnings volatility and pressure from legacy balance-sheet risks. Despite Asia contributing about 38% of earnings and GWAM about 25%, the outlook is tempered by regulatory uncertainty in China and Hong Kong, including the August 2026 tax change, while U.S. core earnings still missed expectations at $1.06 core EPS and the AUM base was ~1% below estimates. Although capital remains solid with a 136% LICAT ratio and long-term LTC reinsurance should help, the combination of mixed segment execution, weaker insurance economics, and elevated Asia risk supports a negative stance.

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