Match Group

MTCH · NASDAQ

$46.53+$1.80 (+4.02%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $44.73

MTCH analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 12 analysts over the last 12 months. 33% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy4
Hold8
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 20 analysts

Average $42.68 (−8.3% downside)

Low: $35.35
Now: $46.53
High: $53.55

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

MTCH analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Evercore ISI Group	Oct 19, 2026	Upgrade	In-Line → Outperform	$39.00 → $53.00	52%
JP Morgan	Aug 24, 2026	Initiates	Neutral	$43.00	27%
TD Cowen	Aug 5, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$46.00 → $45.00	55%
Truist Securities	Aug 5, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$37.00 → $41.00	63%
Wells Fargo	Jul 7, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$38.00 → $41.00	55%
UBS	May 6, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$34.00 → $38.00	63%
TD Cowen	May 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$44.00 → $46.00	55%
Citigroup	May 6, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$33.00 → $39.00	83%
Morgan Stanley	May 6, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$35.00 → $38.00	71%
RBC Capital	May 6, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$37.00 → $42.00	54%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 16, 2026

Bull case

Match Group is supported by a strong structural shift toward online dating, with management estimating 250MM+ global singles not on dating apps as of '25, giving the company a long runway to expand its user base across Tinder, Hinge, and its broader portfolio. Recent fundamentals reinforce that view: 1Q26 revenue of $863.9MM rose 3.9% y/y, 1Q26 adjusted EBITDA of $342.9MM beat expectations by about 8%, and share repurchases helped EPS outperform, while Hinge grew revenue 27.8% y/y and Tinder showed improving engagement, retention, and monetization. Cost discipline and product execution further strengthen the thesis, as segment consolidation, Archer shutdown savings, and margin expansion guidance suggest earnings can rise even amid near-term headwinds at Tinder and Azar.

Bear case

Match Group is facing a fundamental challenge of slowing monetization momentum, with 2Q26 revenue guided only flat to down 2% y/y despite an FX tailwind, while Tinder still carries a $10MM user-experience test headwind and a $20MM Azar drag. Although EBITDA margin is guided to improve to 38.3% at the midpoint, that strength is increasingly tied to cost discipline rather than durable top-line acceleration, and the company is still budgeting $45MM of additional Tinder investment in 2H26. More importantly, Tinder payers have yet to stabilize decisively, Hinge missed payers for the 4th consecutive quarter, and management itself notes competitive, product, and international execution risks that could keep growth subdued.

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