Northrop Grumman

NOC · NYSE

$534.00+$23.35 (+4.57%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $510.65

NOC analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 17 analysts over the last 12 months. 59% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy10
Hold6
Underperform1
Sell0

12-month price target · 24 analysts

Average $659.51 (+23.5% upside)

Low: $543.38
Now: $534.00
High: $855.75

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

NOC analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Bernstein	Oct 14, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$620.00 → $556.00	39%
TD Cowen	Oct 9, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$590.00 → $540.00	63%
Barclays	Oct 9, 2026	Initiates	Underweight	$419.00	26%
Rothschild & Co	Oct 6, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$680.00	—
RBC Capital	Oct 2, 2026	Downgrade	Outperform → Sector Perform	$640.00 → $525.00	59%
Bernstein	Sep 23, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$653.00 → $620.00	39%
Guggenheim	Sep 15, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$612.00	71%
UBS	Sep 8, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$685.00 → $704.00	49%
TD Cowen	Aug 19, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$550.00 → $590.00	63%
Citigroup	Aug 13, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$617.00 → $667.00	27%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 15, 2026

Bull case

Northrop Grumman is supported by a durable mix of strategic-deterrent programs and next-generation growth drivers, with B-21 and Sentinel shifting from development to production and helping anchor future revenue visibility. Its 2026 guidance calls for roughly mid-single-digit organic sales growth and about 11.3% segment margins, while Defense Systems, international expansion, and national security space provide additional upside even as the company prioritizes higher-quality mix over lower-margin cost-plus work. The balance of a large backlog, $3 billion of recent interceptor production agreements, and exposure to mission areas prioritized in the defense budget framework underpins a constructive fundamental outlook despite valuation and customer-concentration risks.

Bear case

Northrop Grumman is facing a weaker fundamental setup because the B-21 program, while expanding toward at least 150 aircraft, is still a near-term margin headwind, with fixed-price LRIP losses already totaling about $2.04B and further execution risk limiting segment profitability. The company also has less financial flexibility after the January 2026 executive order restricting share repurchases, removing a key driver of EPS and FCF compounding, while management sees only limited margin expansion through 2027–2028 and 2028 FCF around $3.6B. In addition, a more cautious defense-spending backdrop post FY27, plus risk to the F-35, Sentinel overhang, and supply-chain and cleared-labor constraints, makes a valuation re-rating difficult despite solid execution.

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