Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings

OLLI · NASDAQ

$92.67−$0.95 (−1.01%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $93.62

OLLI analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 13 analysts over the last 12 months. 77% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy10
Hold3
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 18 analysts

Average $103.45 (+11.6% upside)

Low: $80.80
Now: $92.67
High: $136.50

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

OLLI analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Gordon Haskett	Oct 13, 2026	Upgrade	Accumulate → Buy	$105.00	83%
Citigroup	Sep 4, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$100.00 → $98.00	44%
Goldman Sachs	Sep 3, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$112.00 → $100.00	59%
Piper Sandler	Sep 3, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$113.00 → $100.00	59%
Truist Securities	Sep 3, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$80.00 → $85.00	62%
Morgan Stanley	Sep 3, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$108.00 → $98.00	61%
RBC Capital	Sep 3, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$121.00 → $124.00	54%
Wells Fargo	Sep 3, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$100.00 → $90.00	60%
UBS	Aug 27, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$87.00 → $85.00	64%
Citigroup	Aug 26, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$111.00 → $100.00	44%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 15, 2026

Bull case

Ollie's Bargain Outlet is viewed favorably because its closeout-based, extreme-value model continues to resonate with consumers, driving a broad treasure-hunt shopping experience and a loyal base that includes more than 10 million Ollie’s Army members, which accounted for about 70% of sales in 2019. Fundamentals also appear to be stabilizing, as comp sales sequentially improved through the quarter even though they declined 1.8%, and underlying gross margin remained resilient at 40.3% after adjusting for tariff refunds and price reinvestment. Management’s willingness to reinvest in pricing, raise share repurchases to $175 million, and pursue a long runway toward 1,300 stores supports the view that earnings growth and market share gains can persist.

Bear case

Ollie's Bargain Outlet is facing a fundamentally weaker outlook because its core closeout-driven model depends on volatile inventory supply, and roughly 70% of offerings come from discounted closeout merchandise that can be inconsistent and highly competitive to source. Same-store sales trends are also noisy and under pressure, with a 1.8% comp decline in 2Q, full-year comp guidance cut to flat-0.5% from about 2%, and management citing tough multi-year comparisons, weaker weather, persistent inflation, and an elevated promotional environment. Even with $28.3 million of tariff refunds boosting gross margin by about 380 bps in the quarter, profitability still faced fixed-cost deleverage, higher marketing and fuel costs, and limited support from new-store growth or e-commerce.

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