Pagaya Technologies

PGY · NASDAQ

$18.34+$0.91 (+5.22%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:59 PM ET

Prev close $17.43

PGY analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 8 analysts over the last 12 months. 100% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy8
Hold0
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 13 analysts

Average $29.83 (+62.7% upside)

Low: $23.23
Now: $18.34
High: $37.80

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

PGY analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
TD Cowen	Oct 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$26.00 → $25.00	51%
StoneX	Sep 29, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$33.00	55%
Jefferies	Aug 18, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$23.00 → $27.00	49%
B. Riley Securities	Jul 31, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$32.00 → $36.00	52%
Citizens	Jul 31, 2026	Maintains	Market Outperform	$22.00 → $25.00	59%
Canaccord Genuity	Jul 31, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$32.00 → $36.00	49%
Canaccord Genuity	May 18, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$32.00	49%
Citigroup	Feb 12, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$40.00 → $32.00	46%
Jefferies	Feb 10, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$35.00 → $30.00	49%
Benchmark	Feb 10, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$48.00 → $33.00	55%

The case for and against

Updated Mar 20, 2026

Bull case

Pagaya Technologies Ltd has demonstrated significant financial growth, with total revenue increasing by 20% year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA rising by 53%, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 29.3%. The company's effective use of its AI-driven credit decisioning engine has led to a notable improvement in application conversion rates to underwritten loans, which increased to 23.9% in Q2 2025 from 15.2% in the previous year. Additionally, the firm has achieved robust unit economics, evidenced by a fee revenue margin of approximately 31% and a FRLPC margin of about 4.9%, showcasing the effectiveness of its comprehensive product suite and prudent underwriting standards.

Bear case

Pagaya Technologies Ltd has experienced a sequential decline of approximately 3.5% in network volume, raising concerns about its future revenue, income, and cash flow due to conservative underwriting practices aimed at ensuring steady investor returns. The company’s stock has faced downward pressure following a sell-side report indicating deteriorating credit performance at a competitor, which may hinder Pagaya's access to funding amid rising default rates in the credit industry. Furthermore, challenges related to the effectiveness of its AI technology, retention of partners, attraction of new clients, and evolving regulatory frameworks for AI and machine learning pose significant risks to Pagaya’s financial performance.

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