Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing

TSM · TAIWAN

$418.51+$6.16 (+1.49%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 23, 7:59 PM ET

Prev close $412.35

TSM analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 8 analysts over the last 12 months. 88% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy7
Hold1
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 37 analysts

Average $608.17 (+45.3% upside)

Low: $366.09
Now: $418.51
High: $946.73

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

TSM analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Barclays	Oct 16, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$665.00 → $670.00	59%
DA Davidson	Oct 16, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$500.00	52%
Needham	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$530.00 → $560.00	55%
Barclays	Oct 6, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$650.00 → $665.00	59%
Stifel	Sep 2, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$515.00	67%
Bernstein	Aug 11, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$430.00 → $554.00	65%
Needham	Jul 27, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$480.00 → $530.00	55%
DA Davidson	Jul 17, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$450.00 → $500.00	52%
TD Cowen	Jul 17, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$400.00 → $440.00	55%
Barclays	Jul 17, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$625.00 → $650.00	59%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 21, 2026

Bull case

Taiwan Semiconductor is favored because its foundry scale, leading-edge process technology, and advanced packaging capabilities create a durable competitive edge in a high fixed-cost industry where only three companies can produce sub-10nm semiconductors. Demand remains exceptionally strong, with management guiding 4Q26 revenue of $52.3B to $54.3B, implying 58% Y/Y growth at the midpoint, while 2nm wafers already contribute 8% of wafer revenue and AI accelerator revenue CAGR is reaffirmed in the mid- to high-50s. Profitability and reinvestment also support the bullish view, as gross margin is guided to 66%, operating margin to 57.5%, and capex of $60B to $64B reflects continued investment in roughly 20 fabs under development and expanding capacity across leading-edge nodes.

Bear case

Taiwan Semiconductor is facing a negative outlook because, despite $46.7B in 3Q26 revenue and 41% Y/Y growth, its core economics are showing strain as gross margin fell 130bps sequentially to 66.4% and operating margin declined 170bps Q/Q amid the ramp of N2 technology. The business remains highly exposed to semiconductor cyclicality, pricing pressure, and global GDP sensitivity, so any slowdown in demand or inventory correction could quickly erode earnings power even with strong HPC-led demand. In addition, concentrated Taiwan-centric operations, FX exposure, and the risk of underutilized capital spending create meaningful downside to margins if execution, supply chains, or cross-strait conditions deteriorate.

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