What will the yield for the 2-Year Treasury Note be?

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

• 2.80Resolves Yes if the yield for the 2-Year Treasury Note is above 2.8% on December 31, 2026.
• 3.30Resolves Yes if the yield for the 2-Year Treasury Note is above 3.3% on December 31, 2026.
• 4.30Resolves Yes if the yield for the 2-Year Treasury Note is above 4.3% on December 31, 2026.
• 5.30Resolves Yes if the yield for the 2-Year Treasury Note is above 5.3% on December 31, 2026.
• 6.30Resolves Yes if the yield for the 2-Year Treasury Note is above 6.3% on December 31, 2026.
• 7.30Resolves Yes if the yield for the 2-Year Treasury Note is above 7.3% on December 31, 2026.

Result confirmed by U.S. Federal Reserve.

Trading opened

Mar 5, 2025

Trading closes

Dec 31, 2026

Expected result

Jan 4, 2027

Expected payout

Jan 5, 2027