Artificial Intelligence
Best AI Base Model December 31 2026
Best AI Base Model 2026 · Dec 31, 2026 · Trading open
$354 vol.
About this market
Traders price Claude at 48%, ahead of Gemini at 36%.
The market has $354 in volume across 105 trades; the most recent was on Oct 15, 2026.
Trading closes on Dec 31, 2026. The result is confirmed by LMArena.
The underlying is the base model who holds the top position on the LM Arena, Text Arena leaderboard.
Rules and timeline
Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.
- ClaudeResolves Yes if Claude is the best AI at the end of December 2026.
- GeminiResolves Yes if Gemini is the best AI at the end of December 2026.
- ChatGPTResolves Yes if ChatGPT is the best AI at the end of December 2026.
- GrokResolves Yes if Grok is the best AI at the end of December 2026.
- QwenResolves Yes if Qwen is the best AI at the end of December 2026.
Result confirmed by LMArena.
- Trading opened
- Apr 16, 2026
- Trading closes
- Dec 31, 2026
- Expected result
- Dec 31, 2026
- Expected payout
- Dec 31, 2026
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Other dates in this series
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Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.