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Prices & Inflation

What will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI be?

US Core CPI November 2026 · November 2026 · Trading open

$5K vol.
Show all 12 outcomes

About this market

Traders price Above 2.2% at 98%, ahead of Above 2.4% at 96%.

The market has $5K in volume across 67 trades; the most recent was on Oct 24, 2026.

Trading closes on Dec 10, 2026. The result is confirmed by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Core CPI is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services, excluding food and energy. CPI data is widely used by financial market participants to gauge inflation and by the Federal Reserve to calibrate its monetary policy.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Above 2.2%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceeds 2.2% in November 2026.
  • Above 2.4%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceeds 2.4% in November 2026.
  • Above 2.6%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceeds 2.6% in November 2026? (inflation) (underlying inflation) (price pressures).
  • Above 2.5%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceeds 2.5% in November 2026.
  • Above 2.7%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceeds 2.7% in November 2026? (inflation) (underlying inflation) (price pressures).
  • Above 2.8%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceeds 2.8% in November 2026? (inflation) (underlying inflation) (price pressures).
Show rules for all 12 outcomes
  • Above 2.9%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceeds 2.9% in November 2026? (inflation) (underlying inflation) (price pressures).
  • Above 1.9%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceeds 1.9% in November 2026.
  • Above 2.1%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceeds 2.1% in November 2026.
  • Above 2.3%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceeds 2.3% in November 2026.
  • Above 2%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceeds 2% in November 2026.
  • Above 3%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceeds 3% in November 2026? (inflation) (underlying inflation) (price pressures).

Result confirmed by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Trading opened
Sep 11, 2026
Trading closes
Dec 10, 2026
Expected result
Dec 10, 2026
Expected payout
Dec 10, 2026

More US Core CPI markets

Other dates in this series

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.