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Prices & Inflation

What will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI be?

US Core CPI December 2026 · December 2026 · Trading open

$1.7K vol.

About this market

Traders price Above 1.5% at 99%, ahead of 2.0 at 95%.

The market has $1.7K in volume across 255 trades; the most recent was on Oct 24, 2026.

Trading closes on Jan 13, 2027. The result is confirmed by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Core CPI is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services, excluding food and energy. CPI data is widely used by financial market participants to gauge inflation and by the Federal Reserve to calibrate its monetary policy.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Above 1.5%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceeds 1.5% in December 2026.
  • 2.0Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceeds 2% in December 2026.
  • Above 2.5%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceeds 2.5% in December 2026.
  • 3.0Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceeds 3% in December 2026.
  • Above 4.5%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceeds 4.5% in December 2026.
  • Above 5%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceeds 5% in December 2026.
Show rules for all 8 outcomes
  • 4.0Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceeds 4% in December 2026.
  • Above 3.5%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceeds 3.5% in December 2026.

Result confirmed by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Trading opened
Jan 15, 2025
Trading closes
Jan 13, 2027
Expected result
Jan 13, 2027
Expected payout
Jan 13, 2027

More US Core CPI markets

Other dates in this series

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.