Control of Congress

Balance of Power 2026

Nov 3, 2026 · Trading open

$10.1K vol.
  • Democrats sweepDemocratic
    65%
  • Rep Senate, Dem House$426 vol.
    33%
  • Republicans sweepRepublican
    11%
  • Dem Senate, Rep House$25 vol.
    3%

About this market

Traders price Democrats sweep at 65%, ahead of Rep Senate, Dem House at 33%.

The market has $10.1K in volume across 470 trades; the most recent was on Oct 30, 2026.

Trading closes on Jan 7, 2027, 10:00 AM ET. The result is confirmed by United States Congress.

The outcome of the Senate, House, and Presidential elections, specifically denoting the political party that attains control of each respective branch as reported by the United States Congress.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Democrats sweepResolves Yes if the Democrats wins the Senate and House in the 2026 election.
  • Rep Senate, Dem HouseResolves Yes if the Republicans wins the Senate and Democrats win the House in the 2026 election.
  • Republicans sweepResolves Yes if the Republicans wins the Senate and House in the 2026 election.
  • Dem Senate, Rep HouseResolves Yes if the Democrats wins the Senate and Republicans win the House in the 2026 election.

Result confirmed by United States Congress.

Trading opened
Oct 10, 2025
Trading closes
Jan 7, 2027, 10:00 AM ET
Expected result
Jan 7, 2027
Expected payout
Jan 7, 2027

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Other dates in this series

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.