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Who will win the Texas 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?

TX-04 General Election 2026 · Nov 3, 2026 · Trading open

Pat Fallon91%
Jason Pearce7%
$444 vol.

About this market

Traders price Pat Fallon at 91% to win, ahead of Jason Pearce at 7%.

The market has $444 in volume across 15 trades; the most recent was on Oct 19, 2026.

Trading closes on Dec 6, 2026. The result is confirmed by Texas Secretary of State Elections Division.

This race determines the outcome of the general election for the US House of Representatives in Texas 4th District, shaping representation in the US House of Representatives.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Pat FallonResolves Yes if Pat Fallon wins the Texas 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026.
  • Jason PearceResolves Yes if Jason Pearce wins the Texas 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026.

Result confirmed by Texas Secretary of State Elections Division.

Trading opened
Jan 26, 2026
Trading closes
Dec 6, 2026
Expected result
Dec 6, 2026
Expected payout
Dec 6, 2026

More Texas elections

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.