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Who will win the Texas 38th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?

TX-38 General Election 2026 · Nov 3, 2026 · Trading open

Jon Bonck90%
Melissa McDonough9%
$571 vol.

About this market

Traders price Jon Bonck at 90% to win, ahead of Melissa McDonough at 9%.

The market has $571 in volume across 21 trades; the most recent was on Sep 8, 2026.

Trading closes on Dec 6, 2026. The result is confirmed by Texas Secretary of State Elections Division.

This race determines the outcome of the general election for the US House of Representatives in Texas 38th District, shaping representation in the US House of Representatives.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Jon BonckResolves Yes if Jon Bonck wins the Texas 38th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026.
  • Melissa McDonoughResolves Yes if Melissa McDonough wins the Texas 38th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026.

Result confirmed by Texas Secretary of State Elections Division.

Trading opened
Feb 27, 2026
Trading closes
Dec 6, 2026
Expected result
Dec 6, 2026
Expected payout
Dec 6, 2026

More Texas elections

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.