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Major Weather Events

Hurricane Landfall December 2026

Hurricane Landfall December 2026 · December 2026 · Trading open

$4K vol.
Show all 26 outcomes

About this market

Traders price Mexico at 18%, ahead of Texas at 13%.

The market has $4K in volume across 29 trades; the most recent was on Oct 12, 2026.

Trading closes on Jan 1, 2027. The result is confirmed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The total number of hurricanes classified as Category 3 or higher (sustained winds of at least 96 knots) that make landfall within 50 miles of the referenced region during the contract year. For more research and information on these markets, visit the Weather, Climate & Energy Analysis and Decision Support Website: https://weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org/hurricane.html

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • MexicoResolves Yes if there is a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Mexico in 2026.
  • TexasResolves Yes if there is a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Texas in 2026.
  • FloridaResolves Yes if there is a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Florida in 2026.
  • Harris, TexasResolves Yes if there is a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Harris, Texas in 2026.
  • Escambia, FloridaResolves Yes if there is a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Escambia, Florida in 2026? (tropical cyclone) (storm) (weather).
  • Santa Rosa, FloridaResolves Yes if there is a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Santa Rosa, Florida in 2026? (tropical cyclone) (storm) (weather).
Show rules for all 26 outcomes
  • AlabamaResolves Yes if there is a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Alabama in 2026? (tropical cyclone) (storm) (weather).
  • Baldwin, AlabamaResolves Yes if there is a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Baldwin, Alabama in 2026? (tropical cyclone) (storm) (weather).
  • Broward, FloridaResolves Yes if there is a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Broward, Florida in 2026.
  • CubaResolves Yes if there is a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Cuba in 2026.
  • Dominican RepublicResolves Yes if there is a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Dominican Republic in 2026.
  • Hancock, MississippiResolves Yes if there is a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Hancock, Mississippi in 2026? (tropical cyclone) (storm) (weather).
  • Harrison, MississippiResolves Yes if there is a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Harrison, Mississippi in 2026? (tropical cyclone) (storm) (weather).
  • HawaiiResolves Yes if there is a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Hawaii in 2026.
  • Hillsborough, FloridaResolves Yes if there is a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Hillsborough, Florida in 2026.
  • HondurasResolves Yes if there is a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Honduras in 2026.
  • Jackson, MississippiResolves Yes if there is a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Jackson, Mississippi in 2026? (tropical cyclone) (storm) (weather).
  • Lee, FloridaResolves Yes if there is a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Lee, Florida in 2026.
  • LouisianaResolves Yes if there is a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Louisiana in 2026.
  • Miami-Dade, FloridaResolves Yes if there is a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Miami-Dade, Florida in 2026.
  • MississippiResolves Yes if there is a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Mississippi in 2026? (tropical cyclone) (storm) (weather).
  • Mobile, AlabamaResolves Yes if there is a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Mobile, Alabama in 2026? (tropical cyclone) (storm) (weather).
  • North CarolinaResolves Yes if there is a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of North Carolina in 2026.
  • Okaloosa, FloridaResolves Yes if there is a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Okaloosa, Florida in 2026? (tropical cyclone) (storm) (weather).
  • Palm Beach, FloridaResolves Yes if there is a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Palm Beach, Florida in 2026.
  • The BahamasResolves Yes if there is a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of The Bahamas in 2026.

Result confirmed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Trading opened
Apr 2, 2026
Trading closes
Jan 1, 2027
Expected result
Jan 1, 2027
Expected payout
Jan 1, 2027

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.