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Labor

What will US Initial Jobless Claims be?

US Initial Jobless Claims 2026 · Dec 5, 2026 · Trading open

No trades yet. The chart appears after the first trade.

About this market

No trades have been recorded on this market yet, so there is no market price for any outcome.

Trading closes on Dec 10, 2026, 8:30 AM ET. The result is confirmed by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

An initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claim requests a determination of basic eligibility for the Unemployment Insurance program.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • 170000Resolves Yes if US Initial Jobless Claims exceeds 170,000 for the week ending December 5, 2026? (Jobs) (Unemployment).
  • 180000Resolves Yes if US Initial Jobless Claims exceeds 180,000 for the week ending December 5, 2026? (Jobs) (Unemployment).
  • 190000Resolves Yes if US Initial Jobless Claims exceeds 190,000 for the week ending December 5, 2026? (Jobs) (Unemployment).
  • 200000Resolves Yes if US Initial Jobless Claims exceeds 200,000 for the week ending December 5, 2026? (Jobs) (Unemployment).
  • 210000Resolves Yes if US Initial Jobless Claims exceeds 210,000 for the week ending December 5, 2026? (Jobs) (Unemployment).
  • 220000Resolves Yes if US Initial Jobless Claims exceeds 220,000 for the week ending December 5, 2026? (Jobs) (Unemployment).
Show rules for all 7 outcomes
  • 230000Resolves Yes if US Initial Jobless Claims exceeds 230,000 for the week ending December 5, 2026? (Jobs) (Unemployment).

Result confirmed by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Trading opened
Nov 12, 2026
Trading closes
Dec 10, 2026, 8:30 AM ET
Expected result
Dec 10, 2026
Expected payout
Dec 10, 2026

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Other dates in this series

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.