BigBear.ai Holdings

BBAI · NYSE

$2.17+$0.05 (+2.36%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $2.12

BBAI analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 2 analysts over the last 12 months. 50% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy1
Hold1
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 5 analysts

Average $4.76 (+119.4% upside)

Low: $4.04
Now: $2.17
High: $6.30

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

BBAI analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Cantor Fitzgerald	Jul 31, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$5.00 → $4.00	68%
Cantor Fitzgerald	Mar 3, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$6.00 → $5.00	68%
HC Wainwright & Co.	Mar 3, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$8.00 → $6.00	34%
Cantor Fitzgerald	Jan 7, 2026	Downgrade	Overweight → Neutral	$7.00 → $6.00	68%
HC Wainwright & Co.	Nov 11, 2025	Maintains	Buy	$8.00	34%

The case for and against

Updated Feb 2, 2026

Bull case

BigBear.ai Holdings Inc. is anticipated to improve its revenue visibility as it approaches 2026, bolstered by an improved balance sheet and supportive industry trends. The company is strategically positioned to benefit from increased investments aligned with its core competencies, particularly due to the current administration's focus on technology-led solutions. Additionally, BigBear.ai expects its Ask Sage product to generate approximately $25 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR) this year, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of about six times.

Bear case

BigBear.ai Holdings Inc. reported third-quarter 2025 revenue of $33.1 million, a decline from $41.5 million in the same quarter of the previous year, alongside a significant downward revision of its full-year revenue guidance to a range of $125 million to $140 million, compared to prior estimates of $160 million to $180 million. The company experienced consistent shortfalls in revenue, illustrated by its second-quarter results, where actual revenue of $32.5 million fell short of the projected $41.0 million estimate. Additionally, the gross margin was reported at 22.4%, lower than the estimated 24.0% and down from 25.9% year-over-year, indicating deteriorating profitability amidst challenging market conditions.

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