Ballot Measures
California Ballot Measures
Nov 3, 2026 · Trading open
$504 vol.
About this market
Traders price Prop 40: Billionaire Tax at 34%, ahead of Prop 39: Voter ID at 24%.
The market has $504 in volume across 29 trades; the most recent was on Oct 30, 2026.
Trading closes on Dec 11, 2026, 3:00 PM ET. The result is confirmed by California Secretary of State Elections Division.
The underlying is whether the specified ballot measure passes in California during the specified election.
Rules and timeline
Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.
- Prop 40: Billionaire TaxResolves Yes if the answer to “Will Prop 40: Billionaire Tax pass in California in 2026?” is yes.
- Prop 39: Voter IDResolves Yes if the answer to “Will Prop 39: Voter ID pass in California in 2026?” is yes.
Result confirmed by California Secretary of State Elections Division.
- Trading opened
- Apr 30, 2026
- Trading closes
- Dec 11, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
- Expected result
- Dec 11, 2026
- Expected payout
- Dec 11, 2026
More California elections
24.2K open interest
Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.