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Interest Rates

Fed Decision December 9 2026

Fed Decision 2026 · Dec 9, 2026 · Trading open

$40.7K vol.

About this market

Traders price Raise 25bps at 69%, ahead of No change at 22%.

The market has $40.7K in volume across 322 trades; the most recent was on Oct 24, 2026.

Trading closes on Dec 9, 2026. The result is confirmed by US Federal Reserve.

The federal funds rate is the target interest rate range set by the FOMC. This is the rate at which commercial banks borrow and lend their excess reserves to each other overnight. The FOMC sets a target federal funds rate eight times a year, based on prevailing economic conditions.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Raise 25bpsResolves Yes if the answer to “Will the Fed raise the rate 25bps in December 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?” is yes.
  • No changeResolves Yes if the answer to “Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in December 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?” is yes.
  • Raise 50bps or moreResolves Yes if the answer to “Will the Fed raise the rate 50bps or more in December 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?” is yes.
  • Lower 25bpsResolves Yes if the answer to “Will the Fed lower the rate 25bps in December 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?” is yes.
  • Lower 50bps or moreResolves Yes if the answer to “Will the Fed lower the rate 50bps or more in December 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?” is yes.

Result confirmed by US Federal Reserve.

Trading opened
Sep 16, 2026
Trading closes
Dec 9, 2026
Expected result
Dec 9, 2026
Expected payout
Dec 9, 2026

More Fed Decision markets

Other dates in this series

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.