Major Weather Events
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the United States by November 30, 2026?
Category 4 Hurricane in the US 2026 · Nov 30, 2026 · Trading open
$134 vol.
About this market
Traders price By November 30, 2026 at 3%.
The market has $134 in volume across 13 trades; the most recent was on Oct 21, 2026.
Trading closes on Dec 1, 2026. The result is confirmed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
This Contract resolves based on whether any Category 4 hurricane makes landfall in the United States by the specified date, as reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ("NOAA"). A Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline.
Rules and timeline
A Yes contract pays $1 if the event happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse.
- By November 30, 2026Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the United States by November 30, 2026?” is yes.
Result confirmed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
- Trading opened
- Jul 16, 2026
- Trading closes
- Dec 1, 2026
- Expected result
- Dec 1, 2026
- Expected payout
- Dec 1, 2026
More Category 4 Hurricane in the US markets
Other dates in this series
Category 4 Hurricane in the US
Closes Nov 30, 2027
Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.