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Prices & Inflation

What will the year-over-year change in US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index be?

Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index October 2026 · October 2026 · Trading open

No trades yet. The chart appears after the first trade.

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About this market

No trades have been recorded on this market yet, so there is no market price for any outcome.

Trading closes on Nov 25, 2026. The result is confirmed by U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

PCE is the value of the goods and services purchased by, or on the behalf of, U.S. residents. PCE is a key metric that measures the trajectory of personal spending and future economic growth. The index is used by economists to measure inflation in the US economy.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Above 1.2%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index exceeds 1.2% in October 2026.
  • Above 1.6%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index exceeds 1.6% in October 2026.
  • Above 2.4%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index exceeds 2.4% in October 2026.
  • Above 2.8%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index exceeds 2.8% in October 2026.
  • Above 2%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index exceeds 2% in October 2026.
  • Above 3.2%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index exceeds 3.2% in October 2026.
Show rules for all 10 outcomes
  • Above 3.6%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index exceeds 3.6% in October 2026.
  • Above 3.8%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index exceeds 3.8% in October 2026? (PCE) (inflation) (Fed inflation gauge).
  • Above 4.4%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index exceeds 4.4% in October 2026? (PCE) (inflation) (Fed inflation gauge).
  • Above 4%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index exceeds 4% in October 2026? (PCE) (inflation) (Fed inflation gauge).

Result confirmed by U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Trading opened
Aug 26, 2026
Trading closes
Nov 25, 2026
Expected result
Nov 25, 2026
Expected payout
Nov 25, 2026

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Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.