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Prices & Inflation

What will the year-over-year change in the US Core PCE Price Index be?

US Core PCE Price Index October 2026 · October 2026 · Trading open

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About this market

No trades have been recorded on this market yet, so there is no market price for any outcome.

Trading closes on Nov 25, 2026. The result is confirmed by US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, Excluding Food and Energy ("Core PCE") is published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. The year-over-year change in the Core PCE measures the rate at which consumer prices for goods and services, excluding food and energy, are increasing or decreasing over a 12-month period, providing a clear indication of underlying inflation trends in the US economy.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Above 2.2%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core PCE Price Index exceeds 2.2% in October 2026.
  • Above 2.4%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core PCE Price Index exceeds 2.4% in October 2026.
  • Above 2.6%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core PCE Price Index exceeds 2.6% in October 2026.
  • Above 2.8%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core PCE Price Index exceeds 2.8% in October 2026.
  • Above 2%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core PCE Price Index exceeds 2% in October 2026.
  • Above 3.2%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core PCE Price Index exceeds 3.2% in October 2026.
Show rules for all 9 outcomes
  • Above 3.4%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core PCE Price Index exceeds 3.4% in October 2026.
  • Above 3.6%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core PCE Price Index exceeds 3.6% in October 2026.
  • Above 3%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core PCE Price Index exceeds 3% in October 2026.

Result confirmed by US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Trading opened
Aug 26, 2026
Trading closes
Nov 25, 2026
Expected result
Nov 25, 2026
Expected payout
Nov 25, 2026

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Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.