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Prices & Inflation

What will the year-over-year change in the US Core PCE Price Index be?

US Core PCE Price Index December 2026 · December 2026 · Trading open

$17 vol.
Show all 13 outcomes

About this market

Traders price Above 3% at 86%, ahead of Above 3.6% at 21%.

The market has $17 in volume across 4 trades; the most recent was on Sep 28, 2026.

Trading closes on Jan 29, 2027. The result is confirmed by US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, Excluding Food and Energy ("Core PCE") is published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. The year-over-year change in the Core PCE measures the rate at which consumer prices for goods and services, excluding food and energy, are increasing or decreasing over a 12-month period, providing a clear indication of underlying inflation trends in the US economy.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Above 3%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core PCE Price Index exceeds 3% in December 2026.
  • Above 3.6%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core PCE Price Index exceeds 3.6% in December 2026.
  • Above 2.4%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core PCE Price Index exceeds 2.4% in December 2026.
  • Above 2.5%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core PCE Price Index exceeds 2.5% in December 2026.
  • Above 2.6%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core PCE Price Index exceeds 2.6% in December 2026.
  • Above 2.7%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core PCE Price Index exceeds 2.7% in December 2026.
Show rules for all 13 outcomes
  • Above 2.8%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core PCE Price Index exceeds 2.8% in December 2026.
  • Above 2.9%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core PCE Price Index exceeds 2.9% in December 2026.
  • Above 3.1%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core PCE Price Index exceeds 3.1% in December 2026.
  • Above 3.2%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core PCE Price Index exceeds 3.2% in December 2026.
  • Above 3.3%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core PCE Price Index exceeds 3.3% in December 2026.
  • Above 3.4%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core PCE Price Index exceeds 3.4% in December 2026.
  • Above 3.8%Resolves Yes if the year-over-year change in the US Core PCE Price Index exceeds 3.8% in December 2026.

Result confirmed by US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Trading opened
Oct 30, 2025
Trading closes
Jan 29, 2027
Expected result
Jan 29, 2027
Expected payout
Jan 29, 2027

More US Core PCE Price Index markets

Other dates in this series

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.