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Labor

What will the increase in US Payroll Employment be?

US Payroll Employment October 2026 · October 2026 · Trading open

$11.2K vol.
Show all 11 outcomes

About this market

Traders price 20000 at 71%, ahead of 30000 at 60%.

The market has $11.2K in volume across 483 trades; the most recent was on Oct 24, 2026.

Trading closes on Nov 6, 2026. The result is confirmed by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Nonfarm payroll is the measure of the number of workers in the U.S. excluding farm workers and workers in a handful of other job classifications.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • 20000Resolves Yes if the increase in US Payroll Employment exceeds 20,000 in October 2026.
  • 30000Resolves Yes if the increase in US Payroll Employment exceeds 30,000 in October 2026.
  • 40000Resolves Yes if the increase in US Payroll Employment exceeds 40,000 in October 2026.
  • 50000Resolves Yes if the increase in US Payroll Employment exceeds 50,000 in October 2026.
  • 70000Resolves Yes if the increase in US Payroll Employment exceeds 70,000 in October 2026.
  • 80000Resolves Yes if the increase in US Payroll Employment exceeds 80,000 in October 2026.
Show rules for all 11 outcomes
  • 60000Resolves Yes if the increase in US Payroll Employment exceeds 60,000 in October 2026.
  • 90000Resolves Yes if the increase in US Payroll Employment exceeds 90,000 in October 2026.
  • 100000Resolves Yes if the increase in US Payroll Employment exceeds 100,000 in October 2026.
  • 10000Resolves Yes if the increase in US Payroll Employment exceeds 10,000 in October 2026.
  • 110000Resolves Yes if the increase in US Payroll Employment exceeds 110,000 in October 2026.

Result confirmed by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Trading opened
Aug 7, 2026
Trading closes
Nov 6, 2026
Expected result
Nov 6, 2026
Expected payout
Nov 6, 2026

More US Payroll Employment markets

Other dates in this series

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.