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Labor

What will the increase in US Payroll Employment be?

US Payroll Employment December 2026 · December 2026 · Trading open

$338 vol.
Show all 18 outcomes

About this market

Traders price -682000 at 96%, ahead of -482000 at 93%.

The market has $338 in volume across 55 trades; the most recent was on Oct 6, 2026.

Trading closes on Jan 8, 2027. The result is confirmed by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Nonfarm payroll is the measure of the number of workers in the U.S. excluding farm workers and workers in a handful of other job classifications.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • -682000Resolves Yes if the increase in US Payroll Employment exceeds -682,000 in December 2026.
  • -482000Resolves Yes if the increase in US Payroll Employment exceeds -482,000 in December 2026.
  • -582000Resolves Yes if the increase in US Payroll Employment exceeds -582,000 in December 2026.
  • -382000Resolves Yes if the increase in US Payroll Employment exceeds -382,000 in December 2026.
  • -282000Resolves Yes if the increase in US Payroll Employment exceeds -282,000 in December 2026.
  • -182000Resolves Yes if the increase in US Payroll Employment exceeds -182,000 in December 2026.
Show rules for all 18 outcomes
  • -82000Resolves Yes if the increase in US Payroll Employment exceeds -82,000 in December 2026.
  • 18000Resolves Yes if the increase in US Payroll Employment exceeds 18,000 in December 2026.
  • 118000Resolves Yes if the increase in US Payroll Employment exceeds 118,000 in December 2026.
  • 218000Resolves Yes if the increase in US Payroll Employment exceeds 218,000 in December 2026.
  • 318000Resolves Yes if the increase in US Payroll Employment exceeds 318,000 in December 2026.
  • 418000Resolves Yes if the increase in US Payroll Employment exceeds 418,000 in December 2026.
  • 518000Resolves Yes if the increase in US Payroll Employment exceeds 518,000 in December 2026.
  • 618000Resolves Yes if the increase in US Payroll Employment exceeds 618,000 in December 2026.
  • 718000Resolves Yes if the increase in US Payroll Employment exceeds 718,000 in December 2026.
  • 818000Resolves Yes if the increase in US Payroll Employment exceeds 818,000 in December 2026.
  • 918000Resolves Yes if the increase in US Payroll Employment exceeds 918,000 in December 2026.
  • 1018000Resolves Yes if the increase in US Payroll Employment exceeds 1,018,000 in December 2026.

Result confirmed by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Trading opened
Jan 10, 2025
Trading closes
Jan 8, 2027
Expected result
Jan 8, 2027
Expected payout
Jan 8, 2027

More US Payroll Employment markets

Other dates in this series

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.