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Labor

What will the US Unemployment Rate be?

US Unemployment Rate December 2026 · December 2026 · Trading open

$3.7K vol.
Show all 12 outcomes

About this market

Traders price Above 1.2% at 99%, ahead of Above 1.7% at 99%.

The market has $3.7K in volume across 402 trades; the most recent was on Oct 19, 2026.

Trading closes on Jan 8, 2027. The result is confirmed by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed people as a percentage of the labor force.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Above 1.2%Resolves Yes if the US Unemployment Rate exceeds 1.2% in December 2026.
  • Above 1.7%Resolves Yes if the US Unemployment Rate exceeds 1.7% in December 2026.
  • Above 3.2%Resolves Yes if the US Unemployment Rate exceeds 3.2% in December 2026.
  • Above 2.7%Resolves Yes if the US Unemployment Rate exceeds 2.7% in December 2026.
  • Above 3.7%Resolves Yes if the US Unemployment Rate exceeds 3.7% in December 2026.
  • Above 2.2%Resolves Yes if the US Unemployment Rate exceeds 2.2% in December 2026.
Show rules for all 12 outcomes
  • Above 4.2%Resolves Yes if the US Unemployment Rate exceeds 4.2% in December 2026.
  • Above 4.7%Resolves Yes if the US Unemployment Rate exceeds 4.7% in December 2026.
  • Above 5.2%Resolves Yes if the US Unemployment Rate exceeds 5.2% in December 2026.
  • Above 5.7%Resolves Yes if the US Unemployment Rate exceeds 5.7% in December 2026.
  • Above 6.2%Resolves Yes if the US Unemployment Rate exceeds 6.2% in December 2026.
  • Above 6.7%Resolves Yes if the US Unemployment Rate exceeds 6.7% in December 2026.

Result confirmed by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Trading opened
Jan 10, 2025
Trading closes
Jan 8, 2027
Expected result
Jan 8, 2027
Expected payout
Jan 8, 2027

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Other dates in this series

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.