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Labor

What will the US Unemployment Rate be?

US Unemployment Rate October 2026 · October 2026 · Trading open

$4K vol.
Show all 9 outcomes

About this market

Traders price Above 3.8% at 96%, ahead of Above 4% at 89%.

The market has $4K in volume across 30 trades; the most recent was on Oct 22, 2026.

Trading closes on Nov 6, 2026. The result is confirmed by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed people as a percentage of the labor force.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Above 3.8%Resolves Yes if the US Unemployment Rate exceeds 3.8% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy).
  • Above 4%Resolves Yes if the US Unemployment Rate exceeds 4% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy).
  • Above 4.2%Resolves Yes if the US Unemployment Rate exceeds 4.2% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy).
  • Above 5%Resolves Yes if the US Unemployment Rate exceeds 5% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy).
  • Above 4.6%Resolves Yes if the US Unemployment Rate exceeds 4.6% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy).
  • Above 4.4%Resolves Yes if the US Unemployment Rate exceeds 4.4% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy).
Show rules for all 9 outcomes
  • Above 3.4%Resolves Yes if the US Unemployment Rate exceeds 3.4% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy).
  • Above 3.6%Resolves Yes if the US Unemployment Rate exceeds 3.6% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy).
  • Above 4.8%Resolves Yes if the US Unemployment Rate exceeds 4.8% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy).

Result confirmed by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Trading opened
Aug 7, 2026
Trading closes
Nov 6, 2026
Expected result
Nov 6, 2026
Expected payout
Nov 6, 2026

More US Unemployment Rate markets

Other dates in this series

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.