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Temperatures

What will the lowest temperature in Chicago (CHI)(MDW)(KMDW) be?

Chicago Daily Temperature Low 2026 · Nov 12, 2026 · Trading open

$70 vol.
Show all 11 outcomes
  • Below 36
    No trades yet
    YesNo
  • Below 41
    No trades yet
    YesNo
  • Below 42
    No trades yet
    YesNo

About this market

Traders price Below 40 at 74%, ahead of Below 39 at 43%.

The market has $70 in volume across 17 trades; the most recent was on Nov 12, 2026.

Trading closes on Nov 13, 2026, 12:59 AM ET. The result is confirmed by Weather Underground.

The daily temperature low in Chicago, IL as reported by the Weather Underground for the Chicago Midway Intl Airport Station (KMDW).Disregard the large red and blue numbers at the top of the new Weather Underground website above the Observations table, as they are not the daily high and low temperatures used by Forecastex. Instead, click the green banner to access the old Weather Underground site and use the original summary table. Alternatively, use the Daily Observations table to identify the highest and lowest temperatures recorded that day. For more research and information on these markets, visit the Weather, Climate & Energy Analysis and Decision Support Website: https://weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org/chicago-kmdw.html

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Below 40Resolves Yes if the lowest temperature in Chicago (CHI)(MDW)(KMDW) is below 40 F on November 12, 2026? (minimum) (min) (coldest).
  • Below 39Resolves Yes if the lowest temperature in Chicago (CHI)(MDW)(KMDW) is below 39 F on November 12, 2026? (minimum) (min) (coldest).
  • Below 38Resolves Yes if the lowest temperature in Chicago (CHI)(MDW)(KMDW) is below 38 F on November 12, 2026? (minimum) (min) (coldest).
  • Below 37Resolves Yes if the lowest temperature in Chicago (CHI)(MDW)(KMDW) is below 37 F on November 12, 2026? (minimum) (min) (coldest).
  • Below 32Resolves Yes if the lowest temperature in Chicago (CHI)(MDW)(KMDW) is below 32 F on November 12, 2026? (minimum) (min) (coldest).
  • Below 33Resolves Yes if the lowest temperature in Chicago (CHI)(MDW)(KMDW) is below 33 F on November 12, 2026? (minimum) (min) (coldest).
Show rules for all 11 outcomes
  • Below 34Resolves Yes if the lowest temperature in Chicago (CHI)(MDW)(KMDW) is below 34 F on November 12, 2026? (minimum) (min) (coldest).
  • Below 35Resolves Yes if the lowest temperature in Chicago (CHI)(MDW)(KMDW) is below 35 F on November 12, 2026? (minimum) (min) (coldest).
  • Below 36Resolves Yes if the lowest temperature in Chicago (CHI)(MDW)(KMDW) is below 36 F on November 12, 2026? (minimum) (min) (coldest).
  • Below 41Resolves Yes if the lowest temperature in Chicago (CHI)(MDW)(KMDW) is below 41 F on November 12, 2026? (minimum) (min) (coldest).
  • Below 42Resolves Yes if the lowest temperature in Chicago (CHI)(MDW)(KMDW) is below 42 F on November 12, 2026? (minimum) (min) (coldest).

Result confirmed by Weather Underground.

Trading opened
Nov 11, 2026
Trading closes
Nov 13, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Expected result
Nov 13, 2026
Expected payout
Nov 12, 2026

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.