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Economic Indicators

Fed Decision Impact on CPI November 2026

Fed Decision Impact on CPI November 2026 · November 2026 · Trading open

$538 vol.
  • If the Fed leaves the rate unchanged on October 28, 2026, will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.4% in November 2026?$80 vol.
    90%
    Yes 90¢No 10¢
  • If the Fed lowers the rate 25bps on October 28, 2026, will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.4% in November 2026?$58 vol.
    85%
    Yes 85¢No 15¢
  • If the Fed raises the rate 25bps on October 28, 2026, will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.4% in November 2026?$41 vol.
    80%
    Yes 80¢No 20¢
  • If the Fed lowers the rate 25bps on October 28, 2026, will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.6% in November 2026?$42 vol.
    75%
    Yes 75¢No 25¢
  • If the Fed raises the rate 25bps on October 28, 2026, will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.6% in November 2026?$35 vol.
    65%
    Yes 65¢No 35¢
  • If the Fed leaves the rate unchanged on October 28, 2026, will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.6% in November 2026?$93 vol.
    60%
    Yes 60¢No 40¢
  • If the Fed raises the rate 25bps on October 28, 2026, will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.8% in November 2026?$30 vol.
    55%
    Yes 55¢No 45¢
  • If the Fed lowers the rate 25bps on October 28, 2026, will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.8% in November 2026?$23 vol.
    50%
    Yes 50¢No 50¢
Show all 9 outcomes
  • If the Fed leaves the rate unchanged on October 28, 2026, will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.8% in November 2026?$138 vol.
    3%
    Yes 3¢No 97¢

About this market

Traders price If the Fed leaves the rate unchanged on October 28, 2026, will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.4% in November 2026? at 90%, ahead of If the Fed lowers the rate 25bps on October 28, 2026, will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.4% in November 2026? at 85%.

The market has $538 in volume across 97 trades; the most recent was on Oct 21, 2026.

Trading closes on Oct 28, 2026. The result is confirmed by The Federal Open Market Committee and Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This contract asks whether year-over-year U.S. CPI inflation will exceed a specified percentage in a given month, conditional on a particular Federal Reserve policy decision occurring on a specified date. It is designed to capture market expectations about how Fed actions may influence future inflation outcomes.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • If the Fed leaves the rate unchanged on October 28, 2026, will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.4% in November 2026?Resolves Yes if the answer to “If the Fed leaves the rate unchanged on October 28, 2026, will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.4% in November 2026?” is yes.
  • If the Fed lowers the rate 25bps on October 28, 2026, will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.4% in November 2026?Resolves Yes if the answer to “If the Fed lowers the rate 25bps on October 28, 2026, will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.4% in November 2026?” is yes.
  • If the Fed raises the rate 25bps on October 28, 2026, will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.4% in November 2026?Resolves Yes if the answer to “If the Fed raises the rate 25bps on October 28, 2026, will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.4% in November 2026?” is yes.
  • If the Fed lowers the rate 25bps on October 28, 2026, will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.6% in November 2026?Resolves Yes if the answer to “If the Fed lowers the rate 25bps on October 28, 2026, will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.6% in November 2026?” is yes.
  • If the Fed raises the rate 25bps on October 28, 2026, will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.6% in November 2026?Resolves Yes if the answer to “If the Fed raises the rate 25bps on October 28, 2026, will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.6% in November 2026?” is yes.
  • If the Fed leaves the rate unchanged on October 28, 2026, will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.6% in November 2026?Resolves Yes if the answer to “If the Fed leaves the rate unchanged on October 28, 2026, will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.6% in November 2026?” is yes.
Show rules for all 9 outcomes
  • If the Fed raises the rate 25bps on October 28, 2026, will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.8% in November 2026?Resolves Yes if the answer to “If the Fed raises the rate 25bps on October 28, 2026, will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.8% in November 2026?” is yes.
  • If the Fed lowers the rate 25bps on October 28, 2026, will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.8% in November 2026?Resolves Yes if the answer to “If the Fed lowers the rate 25bps on October 28, 2026, will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.8% in November 2026?” is yes.
  • If the Fed leaves the rate unchanged on October 28, 2026, will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.8% in November 2026?Resolves Yes if the answer to “If the Fed leaves the rate unchanged on October 28, 2026, will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.8% in November 2026?” is yes.

Result confirmed by The Federal Open Market Committee and Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Trading opened
Sep 18, 2026
Trading closes
Oct 28, 2026
Expected result
Dec 10, 2026
Expected payout
Dec 10, 2026

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.